The first 72 hours · A plan for discussion · Version 2
Four moves: shield, bridge, anchor, share and garden
A way out of the budget deadlock without handing out money: trust that makes debt cheaper, and cheaper debt that makes room for water, energy and work in the south.
314 · Natural Intelligence. People and machines together. The decision stays with people.
Shield: by 31.12.2026, no new government needed — one data sheet for all 11 factions; no irreversible step from today until a new government is formed, including under 1/12; bracket indexation from 1.1.2027
Bridge: spring 2027 — a budget without a VAT hike, for two years if possible, and without a funding cliff in the south
Anchor: by 31.12.2027 — 70 votes across the blocs: debt falling toward 60% of GDP, a fiscal council, a social floor and an investment floor
Share and garden: from 2028 — gas-profits levy revenue in the name of every child; water and sun in the south on private capital, paid per m³ and per MWh
A cycle, not a handout:
Trust
Cheaper debt
Water and energy in the south
Land and housing
People in work
Productivity
Revenue
Debt goes down
Draft for discussion · Educational content · Non-partisanData as of 30.10.2026 · Version 2 · Updated 30.10.2026
In a minute
The crisis now. There is no 2027 budget, and from 1.1.2027 spending runs at up to 1/12 of the 2026 budget per month. 11 lists passed the threshold and no majority of 61 has formed yet; there may be no new government until spring. The market is nervous but not panicking: the 10-year shekel government bond yield rose from 4.067% (26.10) to about 4.138% (30.10, morning). Fitch is expected to review the rating again by the end of March 2027.
The way out is a cycle, not a handout. More demand will not help: unemployment is 3.0%. Growth has to come from workers and capital. Output per hour worked in Israel is 78.7% of the OECD average, and closing the gap in capital per worker — above all in infrastructure — would close about half of the productivity gap.
The garden, honestly. Until 2032, new desalinated water goes to meet rising demand. So the garden of the south starts with energy (26 GW by 2035, if the grid can carry it), housing and work. New fields only after a decision on the share of desalinated water for the south. A scoreboard of 10 indicators, each with a proposed publisher (a 314 proposal).
What is not here. No quick wealth: according to the OECD, the full reform package adds at most about 5.5% to GDP per capita over 10 years. The share of a child born in 2028 would reach about ₪28,000–42,000 at age 21 (estimate), not ₪47,000–65,000 as version 1 said.
What is open. 11 legal questions for the Knesset Legal Adviser and requests for information to government ministries — all drafts, none sent. No human economist or lawyer has reviewed the plan yet.
Steps that do not require a new government: within the powers of independent bodies, through private members’ bills and through routine administration. (1) “One data sheet for everyone” — identical for all 11 factions, including the continuing-budget baseline. (2) Five identical questions for all factions. (3) A request to the Bank of Israel to consider: liquidity against collateral, payment deferrals — deferral, not write-off — and a plain explanation for customers. (4) A request to the Office of the Attorney General to consider one rule for all irreversible commitments during the transition and the continuing budget — procedures continue, awards wait for the confidence vote in a new government, no exceptions by place or sector; the government itself may equally adopt the same rule, and the request is the same for any transition government. (5) The Knesset after 10.11: the “January 1 Law” — indexing income-tax brackets, tax credit points and National Insurance contribution brackets from 1.1.2027. (6) A request to the Ministry of Finance: extend the banks’ indemnity until a new government decides, and run water and energy tenders under the same rule.
Whose powers
The Governor of the Bank of Israel and the Supervisor of Banks (Bank of Israel Law, sec. 5); the Office of the Attorney General; members of the 26th Knesset; the Finance Minister and the Accountant General. The outgoing government stays in office until a new one is constituted (Basic Law: The Government, sec. 30(b)). The data sheet is a 314 draft, not an official document.
When
Data sheet — by 4.11; bills — 10–20.11; the request to the Office of the Attorney General — as soon as possible, before any award; the indemnity — before 31.12.2026.
Cost
Close to zero, except bracket indexation (cost by item — information request to the Ministry of Finance) and the indemnity (the contingent liability has not been estimated).
Success measure
The requests were sent (after a human decision) and the replies published verbatim; bills filed by 20.11; the indemnity is extended; the 10-year yield moves back toward 4.067% (the 26.10 level, before the election); 5-year CDS no higher than 60.4 bp (the 26.10 level); days of reduced water supply to farms in the south are published.
The budget and the Arrangements Law — within 21 days of the government’s swearing-in; two years together if sec. 36A(b) of Basic Law: The Knesset applies, otherwise 2027 alone. Deficit path (% of GDP): 4.6 in 2027, then 3.5, 3.0, 2.5, 2.0 and 1.5 from 2032; for the general government — the same path plus 0.9. The path is above the statutory ceilings (3.4, 2.9, 2.4, 1.5 and 1.5 in 2027–2031), and the law is changed openly. No VAT hike: one percentage point would take about ₪8.5bn from everyone. The defence spending level is the government’s call; anything above the law comes with a source and a price. One account against one baseline (Bank of Israel forecast, 4.6%): ending the “green tax” benefit, a tax on foreign streaming services, merging ministries with duplicate functions (by a Finance Ministry list, one criterion for all; estimate; an early Finance Ministry draft, single source; the list has not been published) and a tax on vacant plots — ₪1.6bn, 4.1bn and 5.4bn in 2027–2029 (estimate). Coalition allocations of any coalition — in one open budget line, capped at 0.1% of GDP (about ₪2.4bn). One rule for every category: approved multi-year programmes are carried out at the approved size; any cut only by open vote with a published costing, and no deeper than the general cut; benefits, health and education are outside the cut. Bracket indexation from 1.1.2027; compensation for reservists by days served. Cost of living: EU and US standards, parallel imports, lower food tariffs — after direct payments to farmers.
Whose powers
The government and the Finance Minister submit; the Knesset approves by a majority of those voting. Where the VAT rate is set is a question for the Knesset Legal Adviser.
When
The plan’s target is 31.3.2027. That is a target, not the legal deadline: under sec. 36A(b), the deadline is the later of 1.4.2027 and the day after 145 days from the government’s swearing-in, with holidays not counted. If the government is sworn in on 23.12, that is around the end of May 2027 (estimate; a question for the Knesset Legal Adviser). Without a new government — the continuing budget.
Cost
Against the baseline, in 2027 new spending exceeds new revenue by about ₪2.4bn over a full year (about 2.8bn if the measures start on 1.4.2027); 2028 balances; 2029 yields a surplus of about ₪1.2bn, before costs not yet estimated — the subject of information requests (estimate). Holding 4.6% in 2027 requires restraining spending by about ₪2.4–2.8bn. By 2031 the deficit has to fall by 2.6 percentage points; the measures listed close 2.1–2.5, leaving 0.1–0.5 points, about ₪3–15bn, open — restraint or new measures (estimate). The price: civilian spending is restrained by about ₪27bn in 2031 and grows by only about 0.3% a year per capita in real terms (estimate).
Success measure
Budgets submitted within 21 days and passed by 31.3 or the legal deadline; VAT not raised; no targeted cuts to programmes; Fitch does not downgrade; the 2027 deficit at or below 4.6% of GDP.
Only the Knesset, with a broad majority across the blocs, can bind future governments. Two steps. Step 1, with the budget — a “Budget Responsibility Law”, an ordinary law: the deficit path with a safety mechanism; revenue windfalls go to reducing debt; a social floor (benefits, health, education; the base is 2026 without the 4.9% cut); an investment floor; the defence spending level for 5 years under a “comply or explain” rule; the garden list for 2027–2036 — in law by 30.9.2027. Step 2 — an “Anchor of Generations” chapter in Basic Law: The State Economy, general norms only, with no dates or lists: general government debt falls steadily toward 60% of GDP; a fiscal council attached to the Knesset — 3 members for 7 years, pricing laws and agreements, publishing a sustainability report, with no veto; the path and the floors change only with a council report and a majority of 61; windfalls go to debt; a security emergency clause (up to 12 months — the government with the approval of the Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee, or a majority of those voting; each further 12 months — 61 votes and a council report; 70 — only to change the target); the gas fund is held abroad and the children’s shares are protected; a “trust dividend” — half of the interest savings certified by the council goes to the investment floor if the path has been kept; the courts, elections, Bank of Israel independence and the rotation rules are not affected; the chapter can be changed only by a Basic Law with 70 votes in every reading. 314’s proposal for appointments: a professional committee selects candidates, the Knesset confirms by 70 votes, and one member is recommended by the Leader of the Opposition.
Whose powers
The Constitution, Law and Justice Committee, with sponsors from several factions across the blocs; the Knesset plenum. 70 votes need the support of factions from across the Knesset, across the blocs; no bloc reaches them on its own. Most factions have no public position on fiscal rules — hence the same question to all 11.
When
First reading by 30.6.2027, adoption by 31.12.2027. The clauses on the gas fund and on entrenchment apply at once; the rest from the 2029 budget. With only 61 votes — a framework law without entrenchment.
Cost
The price is discipline: compared with stopping at a 4.6% deficit, about ₪74bn in 2031 and about ₪200bn over 2028–2031 together (estimate); the statutory deficit ceiling has been changed almost every year. The council’s budget — information request. The investment floor grows only from named taxes: a gas tax tied to emission targets (0.3% of GDP) and a congestion charge (0.1%) — up to about ₪10.4bn (estimate); according to the OECD this is the net result after 15 years, and less in the early years.
Success measure
The garden list in law by 30.9.2027; 70 votes or more by 31.12.2027; the deficit on the path; the real 10-year yield (the yield minus 10-year inflation expectations) moves back toward its 26.10 level (about 2.15 percentage points; 2.22 on 30.10); Fitch outlook “stable”.
From 2028 · gas-levy revenue in the name of every child
What
Share. New revenue from the Sheshinski levy (the tax on windfall gas profits) from 1.1.2028 is credited every quarter, automatically and without an annual budget law, in the name of every resident child aged 0–17, in a register inside the Citizens’ Fund. The money stays in foreign assets; at 21 (or 18 — the Knesset’s choice) it moves to the child’s “Savings for Every Child” account. The fund’s corpus stays common: a withdrawal of about ₪0.3bn a year goes to the garden instead of today’s earmarked transfers (₪233m in 2025), and the council publishes who loses out. How much (estimate; about 3.3–3.4 million children): in 2028 — about ₪460–570 per child; in 2030–2035 — about ₪1,700–2,300 a year, if Leviathan starts paying the levy; after 2035 — about ₪900–1,500. Garden. The state pays for m³ and MWh actually delivered, under BOT and PPP models; the money is private capital, tariffs, the fund’s corpus and, from the 2029 budget, half of the “trust dividend” (only if actual interest is below the line in the budget law). Details in the “Garden” section.
Whose powers
The Finance Minister and the Knesset — amendments to the Citizens’ Fund Law and the National Insurance Law; the Bank of Israel manages the fund; the National Insurance Institute — the accounts. For the garden: the Water Authority, the Electricity Authority, the Israel Land Authority and the Ministry of Finance Budget Department.
When
An opinion on the accounting treatment — by 30.6.2027; the amendments — by 30.9.2027; the first credit — after the first quarterly transfer of 2028.
Cost
The flow does not enter the budget. If the Central Bureau of Statistics records the credit as a transfer — up to 0.3% of GDP on the deficit path (estimate). The risk of court petitions is lower, but it has not gone away.
Success measure
100% of eligible children registered after the first credit; zero withdrawals from the children’s shares; the garden scoreboard published every quarter.
Each move opens the next. Without the Shield there is no time; without the Bridge, no money; without the Anchor the garden becomes a handout; without the garden the Anchor has no growth.
The garden: water, energy, land and people
How the south grows without handouts: the state pays for results — for m³ and MWh delivered — and the big money is private capital and tariffs.
Who pays. Water and energy — the tariff, by volume (a gas tax makes them dearer, and the fiscal council would publish the effect); land — the buyer and the state (a discount is spending); grids and public goods — the budget. Competition costs the budget almost nothing, and prices in Israel are about 30% above the euro area (2024).
Water
About 800 million m³ of desalination a year. In September 2026 algae stopped 5 of 6 plants; the farm quota was cut by 90 million m³; demand is expected to reach 3,730 million m³ by 2050. The plants are late (Sorek 2 and Western Galilee 1 — by about two years; at Sorek 2 it took 5.7 years from the tender award to full capacity), so the baseline is about 1,000 million m³ in 2032 and about 1,200 in 2033–2034.
Balance for 2026–2032 (estimate): at baseline, +200 from desalination and +20 from treated wastewater against 312 of demand growth, a shortfall of about 90 million m³; on schedule (+400), a surplus of about 110. Several claims sit on that water: Jordan (an additional 50), the Prosperity Blue project (up to 200 within the same 1,200), restoring the farm quota (90) and the Sea of Galilee.
So: until 2032, new water goes to meet demand growth. New fields in the desert only after a Water Authority decision on the share of desalinated water for the south and its price for farmers (information request). In a failure — the population first, then family farms with no other source; one rule for south and north.
Renewables — about 17% of generation; a record 1.3 GW was connected in 2025; about 4 GW is under construction. The target is 26 GW by 2035, hence one measure: at least 1.8 GW of connections a year, about 40% above the record (estimate). Agrivoltaics: a yield of at least 75% of the norm, no subsidies; the economics have not yet been tested.
The bottleneck is the grid in the south: there is no public data on curtailment or on the 400 kV lines; the lines are built by the Israel Electric Corporation. It is proposed that from 31.3.2027 Noga publish curtailment and the connection queue — otherwise 26 GW is a target nobody can check. The cost of the lines in the tariff — information request.
Beersheba grew by only about 540 residents in a decade; Eilat lost 10.5% of its population (2015–2025). Commitments under government decisions for the Negev, excluding Tkuma (commitments, not cash): ₪4.4bn in 2022, 1.3bn in 2025 and a forecast 0.282bn in 2029 — according to a civil-society report that predates the decisions of November–December 2025. According to the report, without new decisions that is a fall of 88% between 2027 and 2029 (the report gives no 2027 base, and without the primary source the series does not reconcile); against 2025 — a fall of about 78% (estimate).
The Tkuma Administration accounts for 91% of all commitments for the Negev, Tkuma included (the source does not specify the base); the series above (4.4 → 1.3 → 0.282) already excludes it. Its 2026 budget is about ₪2.8bn. Its mandate ends in 2028: without a decision on a successor body, with an amount and a source, before the 2029 budget, funding stops in 2029. In 2025 the government decided on about ₪1bn for Beersheba ahead of the move of IDF bases and on more than ₪100m for the Eastern Negev. Land is sold at discounts; from January to early June 2026 about half of the land offered nationwide was sold (land for 2,347 of 4,653 homes); for the Negev — information request.
About 8,000 soldiers will serve at the IDF technology campus in Beersheba; how many families will move — information request. The Negev employment budget fell from ₪387m to ₪100m. Unemployment in the south is 3.55%, in the centre 2.48%, nationally 3.0% (9.2026).
Water, electricity and transport to work — under one rule for all Negev localities, in line with the law and government decisions. Questions of recognition and planning belong to the government and the Knesset; the plan takes no position on them and leaves them out of the garden’s accounts.
Prices in Israel are about 30% above the euro area; food is about 33% dearer than the average of Austria, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands and Sweden (the whole household basket — about 13%; 2024). The tools cost the budget almost nothing: EU and US standards, parallel imports, lower food tariffs after direct payments to farmers, and exemptions from the “What’s good for Europe is good for Israel” reform with a timetable for removing them.
Decision on a five-year infrastructure plan for the south
A successor to Tkuma; positive net migration in Beersheba
Eastern Negev on the way to 443,000 residents by 2050 (strategic, non-statutory document)
People
The Bridge’s employment incentives
The 2030 employment targets
School education indicators
Garden scoreboard: 10 indicators
An indicator without a publisher does not go in. 314 proposal: the Knesset Research and Information Center would compile the scoreboard every quarter, and the Knesset Budget Office once it is set up by law (subject to a check of their mandate). The publishers in the table are proposals only: the bodies have not been asked and have not agreed. Non-numeric targets get a number after the baseline is measured, by 31.3.2027.
Garden scoreboard: indicator, proposed publisher, baseline and target
Indicator
Proposed publisher
Baseline
Target
Actual desalination; days of outage
Water Authority
About 800 million m³
At least 900 by 2030
Water for farms in the south and its price
Water Authority
Information request
Not below 2025 in years without failures; in a shortage — by the priority rule
Renewables connected; storage
Electricity Authority
1.3 GW a year; storage: 1.5 GW awarded in a tender (online by 2028), installed — information request
At least 1.8 a year; storage 5.5 by 2030
Curtailment in the south
Noga
Not published
Published; reduction — as a number
Net migration: Beersheba, Eilat, Eastern Negev
Central Bureau of Statistics
Information request (2015–2025: Beersheba up about 540 residents, Eilat down 10.5%)
Positive by 2030
Unemployment in the south
Central Bureau of Statistics
South 3.55%, centre 2.48%, national 3.0% (9.2026)
Gap with the centre — as a number
Land sales in the Negev
Israel Land Authority
Information request
At least 80%, with published discounts
Commitments: Negev and Tkuma
Ministry of Finance
Information request
No cuts
Families of career soldiers in the Negev
Ministry of Defence
Information request
As a number
Dead Sea; climate adaptation plans
State Comptroller
1 project of 12; 3 of 28 bodies with a plan
12 of 12; as a number
Who delivers. Proposal: coordinator — the Ministry of the Negev, the Galilee and National Resilience (name as in 2023 data) or a successor body; money and milestones — the Ministry of Finance Budget Department; water — the Water Authority and Mekorot; energy — the Electricity Authority, Noga and the Israel Electric Corporation; land — the Israel Land Authority; oversight — a Knesset committee, later the fiscal council.
Money for the garden (estimate). Firm, if moves 2–3 are adopted: an investment floor per capita no lower than in 2026 (the amount — information request) and about ₪0.3bn a year from the fund’s corpus. Conditional: a five-year infrastructure plan for the south, up to about ₪1.3bn a year, if the government adopts it; the investment-floor taxes, up to about ₪10.4bn from 2029; the trust dividend. Private: renewables — about ₪36–49bn over a decade; the Emek Hefer desalination plant — about ₪5.5bn.
Protection against handouts. Payment for results; a price before a decision; zero coalition money; one formula for all local authorities (by the Central Bureau of Statistics cluster); a review every 3 years; gas money does not enter the current budget; a project without a price stays off the list (like a railway to Eilat, with cost estimates of ₪27–50bn).
Honestly
New fields in the desert — not before 2032, and not before a decision on the share of desalinated water for the south.
26 GW — only if the southern grid can carry it; without curtailment data it is a target nobody can check.
Without a decision on a successor to Tkuma, Negev funding stops in 2029.
The plan does not shorten plant construction: from tender award to full capacity takes about 5–6 years.
The Anchor’s target is general government debt — by the Central Bureau of Statistics method, as certified by the fiscal council — falling steadily toward 60% of GDP. The pace depends on the gap between the central government deficit, which the path sets, and the general government deficit. According to the IMF the gap is 0.7–1.0 percentage points (2026–2031; about 0.9 on average). Fitch’s 2027 deficit is 2.0 points above the Bank of Israel forecast (6.6% vs 4.6%), and only 0.7–0.9 of that is method; the rest is a forecast that the path will not be kept (estimate).
General government debt, % of GDP, by scenario (estimate)
Scenario
2027
2029
2031
2036
60% of GDP
Gap 0
71.5
71.1
68.9
60.8
Around 2037
Gap 0.9, the IMF’s 2026–2031 average
72.4
73.7
73.0
68.1
Around 2049
General government deficit 2.0 above the path (as Fitch for 2027)
73.5
76.9
78.0
77.0
Never
Same, with tightening of 0.5 points a year
73.5
75.4
74.5
69.3
Around 2050
IMF baseline, recomputed at 5% growth (simplified series: general government deficit 5.1% in 2027, then 4.7–4.9%)
72.0
74.4–74.8
76.7–77.4
81.5–83.0
Not reached
314 estimate: next year’s debt equals this year’s debt divided by 1.05, plus the general government deficit; nominal growth of 5% a year; starting point 70.2% of GDP at end-2026 (between the IMF, 70.1%, and Fitch, 70.3%). The Bank of Israel forecasts 68% at end-2026 and 66.5% at end-2027, assuming real growth of 7.5% in 2027; the scenarios here are conservative (5% nominal growth); starting from 68% would lower the path by about 2.1 percentage points in 2027 (estimate).
The plan does not promise a fast decline: with a 0.9 gap, as with the IMF, debt reaches 60% of GDP only around 2049.
The IMF’s published baseline (70.7% in 2027 and 73.8% in 2031) assumes nominal growth faster than 5% (about 6.9% in 2027 by our calculation from its debt and deficit figures; estimate). Against a comparable baseline at 5% growth the path is lower from 2029, and interest savings in 2031 are about ₪4–5bn with a 0.9 gap, or about ₪9–10bn with a zero gap (estimate).
A 2.4% ceiling on the general government deficit from 2032 takes debt toward about 50% of GDP; a 3% ceiling — only to about 63% (estimate).
The debt measure works through the deficit path: debt no higher than the plan’s path, with the gap certified by the fiscal council.
The clock started on Friday 30.10. The working days in this window are Sunday 1.11 and Monday 2.11. No letter is sent and no answer is published without a human decision. “Draft published” means the text is on this page; “In preparation” means it is not yet published.
The first 72 hours: what 314 is preparing, for whom, and its status
Hours
When
To
What
Status
0–24 h
Fri 30.10 – Sat 31.10
All 11 factions
“One data sheet for everyone” and the garden scoreboard — the same text for all factions, with a source for every number. A 314 draft, not official data. Details
In preparationDraft · Not yet sent · The Hebrew text is binding
48–72 h
Mon 2.11
The public
2.11 is the last day to submit the 2027 budget to the Knesset (60 days before the year begins). If the government is formed after that date (as expected), sec. 36A(b) of Basic Law: The Knesset applies. A short explanation will be added to this page.
In preparation
One data sheet for everyone
A 314 draft — not official data and not a document of the Bank of Israel or of any ministry. The same sheet for all 11 factions. Draft published
Checked by AI agents; every number links to a source — check for yourself.
One data sheet for everyone: indicator, value, date, source and type
Indicator
Value
As of
Source
Type
Election of 27.10.2026
11 lists passed the threshold; no list has 61. Turnout: 77.9% (5,716,665 votes; Wikipedia gives 77.97%). Official results are due on 4.11, and the Knesset is sworn in on 10.11.
A deficit of 4.4% of GDP in 2026 and 4.6% in 2027 (up because of defence); debt of 68% at end-2026 and 66.5% at end-2027. The forecast does not include decisions of a new government or the effects of the election.
4.9% of GDP in 2026, 3.4% in 2027, 2.9% in 2028, 2.4% in 2029 and 1.5% from 2030. It is an ordinary law, and the ceiling has been changed almost every year.
General government debt: 68.4% (2025), 70.1% (2026), 70.7% (2027), 73.8% (2031). Central government deficit: 5.3% in 2026 and 4.4% in 2027; general government: 6.2% and 5.1%. In the IMF’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook: 67.9% for 2025.
68.6% of GDP at end-2025, per the Accountant General (Bank of Israel annual report: 68.5%; in 2022 — about 60%). Fitch: 70.3% in 2026, 71.7% in 2027 and 72.1% in 2028. Bank of Israel: 68% at end-2026 and 66.5% at end-2027.
2026: ₪158bn (₪111bn in the original proposal; the Knesset approved 143 in March). A further ₪25bn is requested — about ₪183bn (estimate: 158 + 25), about 8.1% of GDP (estimate: 183 of a GDP of about ₪2,246bn). 2027: no official figure; from about ₪187bn (Jerusalem Post: the defence budget is “expected to reach NIS 187 billion”; the article does not name the year) to about ₪200bn (estimates in markets and ministries, Ynetnews; head of the Tax Authority, Globes).
Not approved and not drafted. From 1.1.2027 — a continuing budget: each month up to 1/12 of the 2026 budget or of the spending ceiling (whichever is lower), adjusted for population growth. Tax brackets, credit points and National Insurance contribution brackets stay frozen. Whether the 2026 supplement enters the base is a question for the Knesset Legal Adviser.
A, negative outlook (affirmed on 12.10.2026). Reasons: rising debt, unresolved security issues, a polarised political scene. Next review — by the end of March 2027.
S&P: A, stable outlook (affirmed 8.5.2026; the agency noted uncertainty about the 2027 fiscal parameters). Moody’s: Baa1, stable outlook since January 2026; unchanged in the periodic review of July 2026.
Bank of Israel rate: 3.25% (decided on 21.10; a pause after five cuts since November 2025, four of them since the start of 2026). Annual inflation: 1.6% (September). Inflation expectations (September average): 1.90% over 5 years, 1.92% over 10 years.
Unemployment: 3.0% in September 2026 (seasonally adjusted); 3.55% in the south, 2.48% in the centre. Vacancies: 147,946. Labour force participation: 62.2%.
20.7% of people (about 2 million) and 28% of children (about 880,000) in 2024. Without state intervention (transfers and direct taxes) the poverty rate would have been 31.5%.
An additional 12.5% tariff on Israeli goods exports to the US from 24.7.2026, with many exemptions. Countries that have banned imports of forced-labour goods, or committed to ban them, pay 10%.
$3.3bn a year (FMF) plus $0.5bn for missile defence, under the memorandum of understanding for fiscal years 2019–2028: $38bn over 10 years (3.3 = 3.8 − 0.5, a calculation). No new memorandum has been signed; no cut has been agreed.
€43.3bn in 2025, 31.7% of Israel’s goods trade; the largest partner. The Commission’s proposal of 17.9.2025 to suspend the trade provisions of the Association Agreement (about €5.8bn of exports) has not been adopted.
Leviathan sold 10.9 billion m³ in 2025: 6.2 to Egypt, 2.9 to Jordan and 1.8 to Israel. Only the Tamar field currently pays the Sheshinski levy; for Leviathan it was deferred because of the expansion investment. The fund: about $2.8bn at end-2025. Tax Authority forecast: $21–25bn for the fund over the next decade.
Desalination: capacity of about 800 million m³ a year from 6 plants (Sorek B reached full capacity in 1.2026; on 13.10 it ran at about 50% because of a technical fault). In September 2026 algae stopped 5 of 6 plants; by 13.10 most were running again. The 2026 farm quota was cut by 90 million m³.
According to the Central Bureau of Statistics, 69,300 Israelis left in 2025 and 19,000 returned (net departures of about 50,000 — estimate). A different series, a Tel Aviv University study based on CBS data: 90,922 departures of three months or more. Population: 10.178 million.
Why there are several deficit numbersThese are different deficits and should not be compared directly. The Ministry of Finance publishes the state budget deficit (central government) on a cash basis: 3.2% of GDP in the 12 months to September 2026. The statutory ceilings (4.9% for 2026, 3.4% for 2027) and the Bank of Israel forecast (4.4% and 4.6%) refer to the same measure. Fitch calculates the deficit of the whole government (general government) for a full calendar year, including revenue and spending that have been recorded but not yet collected or paid: 7.5% in 2026 and 6.6% in 2027. Fitch’s figure is 3.1 and 2.0 percentage points above the Bank of Israel forecast. The difference in method explains only about 0.7–0.9 points of that gap: according to the IMF, the general government deficit exceeds the central government deficit by that much (6.2% vs 5.3% in 2026, 5.1% vs 4.4% in 2027). The rest reflects different forecasts (estimate).
The same five questions for all 11 factions. Answers will be published verbatim, all together, in Hebrew alphabetical order; each of the 11 factions gets one neutral status line, “answer received” or “no answer yet”, without comment. Approaching the factions and publishing — only by human decision. Draft publishedDraft · Not yet sent
Will you work for the budget to be submitted to the Knesset within 21 days of the government’s swearing-in?
Will you work for the financial clauses of every coalition agreement to receive an independent cost estimate before the confidence vote, if time allows?
Will you support changing the deficit path or the VAT rate only by an open vote and with a published price?
Will you support the same requirements for any supplementary budget, whatever its purpose: a declared funding source, a published effect on the continuing-budget base, marking as one-off, and an across-the-board cut that does not touch the social floor?
Will you work for approved multi-year programmes not to fall below their 2025 level, and for any cut to be made by open vote and with a published costing?
314 proposes the text and will invite employers’ organizations, all workers’ organizations and economists to join in putting the questions. No one has joined yet, and the text has not been agreed with anyone.
Three letters — drafts
The letters are 314 drafts: not yet sent, and the Hebrew text is binding. They are addressed to office-holders by title, not by name.
Checked by AI agents; every number links to a source — check for yourself.
טיוטה · טרם נשלחה · הנוסח העברי הוא המחייבDraft · Not yet sent · The Hebrew text is binding
Draft published
To The Governor of the Bank of Israel The Supervisor of Banks, Bank of Israel
Re: Preparing the banking system until a new government is formed: liquidity, payment deferrals and an explanation for customers
Dear Sir or Madam,
The election to the 26th Knesset took place on 27.10.2026, and no majority of 61 has formed yet. Official results will be published on 4.11, and the Knesset will be sworn in on 10.11. Forming a government may take months, and the 2027 budget has not been approved. Markets are reacting with moderate volatility: the 10-year shekel government bond yield stood at 4.067% on 26.10, 4.147% on 28.10 and about 4.138% on the morning of 30.10; the representative rate was ₪3.078, 3.128 and 3.114 to the dollar on 26.10, 28.10 and 29.10.
In our assessment, one of the risks in this period is possible disruption to banking services. In the open sources we checked we found no evidence of such disruption actually occurring.
The Bank of Israel Law, 2010, provides that the Bank is independent in choosing its courses of action and exercising its powers (sec. 5), and that one of its objectives is to support the stability and orderly functioning of the financial system (sec. 3(a)(3)). The steps requested below therefore do not depend on a new government being formed. Foreign-exchange reserves stood at about $237.0bn at end-September 2026 (Bank of Israel, 7.10.2026; $238.7bn at the end of Q2). Providing liquidity against collateral, activated only in a disruption, costs the state budget almost nothing (estimate).
We are publishing this letter as a draft and will publish any reply in full and verbatim. The text has not been coordinated with anyone.
What we ask
To consider preparing a procedure for providing liquidity to banks against collateral, to be activated only in a disruption, as the Bank sees fit.
As the Bank sees fit: to ask the banks to offer reservists, evacuees and small businesses whose turnover has fallen a deferral of mortgage and loan payments — a deferral, not a write-off.
As the Bank sees fit: to ask every bank to explain to its customers in plain language where to turn in case of any service failure.
טיוטה · טרם נשלחה · הנוסח העברי הוא המחייבDraft · Not yet sent · The Hebrew text is binding
Draft published
To The Office of the Attorney General
Re: One rule for all irreversible commitments during the transition and the continuing budget
Dear Sir or Madam,
The election to the 26th Knesset took place on 27.10.2026. Official results will be published on 4.11, and the new Knesset will be sworn in on 10.11. Under sec. 30(b) of Basic Law: The Government, the outgoing government continues in office until the new government is constituted. The first member of the Knesset tasked with forming a government has until 23.12.2026 at the latest; if no government is formed, a repeat election is expected around May 2027 (estimate based on secs. 7–11). If the 2027 budget law is not passed by 1.1.2027, the government may spend each month up to 1/12 of the previous year’s budget, adjusted for population growth (sec. 3B of Basic Law: The State Economy).
A transition government has the same powers as a regular government, but must exercise restraint. Restraint matters most in decisions that a new government will be unable to reverse. Today it is hard to know in advance which decision will wait and which will not, so we propose one rule, public and identical for everyone. The request does not concern security decisions and takes no position in any political dispute. The same rule would apply to any transition government, whatever its composition, with no exceptions by place or sector. The government itself may equally adopt the same rule.
We are publishing this letter as a draft and will publish any reply in full and verbatim. The text has not been coordinated with anyone.
What we ask
To consider publishing, as soon as possible and where possible before any award in a multi-year tender, one rule for all irreversible commitments from today until a government that has won the Knesset’s confidence is constituted, including during the continuing budget: awards in multi-year tenders — infrastructure, transport, energy and land tenders — new state guarantees and earmarked transfers.
Our proposal for the content of the rule: procedural steps — publication, clarifications, submission of bids and opening of the tender box — continue for everyone; the award waits for the confidence vote in the new government, provided the delay causes no proven harm; no exceptions by place or sector.
To consider a mechanism under which any departure from the rule is made only with written reasons for its urgency and for the harm of delay, and the reasons are published.
טיוטה · טרם נשלחה · הנוסח העברי הוא המחייבDraft · Not yet sent · The Hebrew text is binding
Draft published
To The Minister of Finance The Accountant General, Ministry of Finance
Re: Continuity of the banking channel and water and energy tenders during the transition
Dear Sir or Madam,
Two Israeli banks provide correspondent services to Palestinian banks. The indemnity granted to them for these services is valid until the end of 2026, and the banks have postponed ending the service to 31.12.2026. The correspondent services company set up in 2019 cannot operate without legislation. The decision on a permanent arrangement will rest with the new government.
If the 2027 budget law is not passed by 1.1.2027, the government may spend each month up to 1/12 of the previous year’s budget, and a new government may not yet have been constituted by then. In our assessment, a sudden end to the service at exactly that moment would add uncertainty to the banking channel. The proposed extension continues the status quo: the need is urgent, because the indemnity expires on 31.12.2026; the extension is limited until the new government decides; and the decision is left to it. The request takes no position on policy toward the Palestinian Authority; it concerns the continuity of the payment channel of Israeli banks. The same request would go to whoever holds the office, whatever the composition of the government.
At the same time, water tenders are under way: the pre-qualification stage of the tender for the second desalination plant in the Western Galilee was announced on 28.10.2026, and in the Emek Hefer tender applications may be submitted until 25.2.2027. Under the published timetables, no award is expected before a confidence vote in a new government. We propose that these tenders, and energy tenders as well, follow the same rule we proposed to the Office of the Attorney General.
We are publishing this letter as a draft and will publish any reply in full and verbatim. The text has not been coordinated with anyone.
What we ask
Before 31.12.2026: to extend the indemnity for banks providing correspondent services to Palestinian banks until the new government decides on a permanent arrangement — continuing the status quo, without expansion.
Once the Finance Committee of the 26th Knesset is set up: to report to it on the extension and its terms, and to publish an estimate of the state’s contingent liability.
Water and energy tenders: procedures continue as normal, and awards wait for the confidence vote in the new government, provided the delay causes no proven harm — the same rule for all tenders.
Supervisor of Banks — a stress scenario for banks’ exposure to measures by foreign states against a contractor or a guarantor bank in a project. In preparationDraft · Not yet sent
Knesset Legal Adviser — 11 legal questions (see “Requests for information”). In preparationDraft · Not yet sent
Competition Authority — exemptions from the “What’s good for Europe is good for Israel” reform and a timetable for removing them. In preparationDraft · Not yet sent
Water Authority — the share of desalinated water for the south and its price for farmers; production and outage data. In preparationDraft · Not yet sent
Electricity Authority — publishing curtailment in the south and the connection queue. In preparationDraft · Not yet sent
Israel Land Authority — the share of land sold in the Negev and the scale of discounts. In preparationDraft · Not yet sent
Bills
Draft bills, in preparation ahead of the Knesset swearing-in on 10.11. No member of the Knesset has joined yet; 314 will invite members from all factions to join as sponsors.
The January 1 Law
In preparation
Indexing income-tax brackets, tax credit points and National Insurance contribution brackets from 1.1.2027. Indexation fixed in law also applies under a continuing budget. Benefits are not frozen: they are indexed under the National Insurance Law. The fast route is a government bill, or a private member’s bill with an exemption from the waiting period (a question for the Knesset Legal Adviser); the fallback is retroactive effect in the Arrangements Law. The government’s consent removes only the 50-vote requirement.
Cost: information request to the Ministry of Finance, by item.
By a majority of 61, a general rule for any government, filed in advance: under a continuing budget, the base for benefits, health and education is adjusted for prices too, not only for population growth.
A deficit path with a safety mechanism; windfalls to debt; a social floor and an investment floor; an independent council: 3 members for 7 years, pricing laws and coalition agreements by decile and region, with no veto. Inside the Arrangements Law (move 3, step 1).
Cost: the council’s budget — information request.
A ban on imports of forced-labour goods
In preparation
The US applies an additional tariff of 10% instead of 12.5% to countries that have banned such imports or committed to do so.
A legal framework for the company set up in 2019 to provide correspondent services to Palestinian banks; without a law it cannot operate. Terms and scope would be set by the government and the Knesset. The bill takes no position on policy toward the Palestinian Authority; it concerns the continuity of the payment channel of Israeli banks.
Cost: not estimated; the scale of the liability under the indemnity has not been published.
Under sec. 3C of Basic Law: The State Economy, a bill not submitted by the government, whose budgetary cost is ₪7,194,585 (the 2026 amount) or more in any budget year, and to whose cost the government has not consented, may be passed only with the votes of at least 50 members of the Knesset in each reading. The government’s consent removes only this requirement. We therefore propose that members from all factions file the bills together.
No request has been sent; each goes out only after a human decision.
Requests for information: to whom, what, and status
To
What we ask for
Status
Knesset Legal Adviser
11 questions, including: the deadline for the budget law under sec. 36A(b) for different swearing-in dates, with holidays not counted, and whether two budgets can be submitted together; whether the 2026 supplement enters the continuing-budget base; whether redirecting fund revenue to children’s shares is a “budgetary bill” under sec. 3C; what majority is needed for a Basic Law chapter entrenched by 70; the timing of private members’ bills before committees are set up; whether the chapter is compatible with the tests of High Court case 5969/20; whether extending the indemnity requires Finance Committee approval; where the VAT rate is set.
In preparationDraft · Not yet sent · The Hebrew text is binding
Budget Department, Ministry of Finance
The continuing-budget base for 2027; the cost of indexing brackets, credit points and National Insurance contributions — by item; the cost of compensating reservists by days served; the list of commitments for the Negev and Tkuma for 2027–2029; the deficit effect and decile distribution of the main economic promise of each of the 11 factions — by the same method for all.
In preparationDraft · Not yet sent · The Hebrew text is binding
Bank of Israel
What level of defence spending is built into the 4.6% deficit forecast for 2027 (about ₪187bn or less).
In preparationDraft · Not yet sent · The Hebrew text is binding
Accountant General
What share of the debt will be refinanced in 2027–2031; the effective interest rate; what explains the gap between central and general government.
In preparationDraft · Not yet sent · The Hebrew text is binding
Central Bureau of Statistics
How the gas shares would be recorded in the national accounts; the number of children aged 0–17; net migration for Beersheba, Eilat and the Eastern Negev.
In preparationDraft · Not yet sent · The Hebrew text is binding
National Insurance Institute
The number of eligible children; how registration and payment at 21 would work; compensation for reservists by days served.
In preparationDraft · Not yet sent · The Hebrew text is binding
Tax Authority
The Sheshinski levy forecast by year and field; when Leviathan will pay; the gas levy’s share of total fund revenue.
In preparationDraft · Not yet sent · The Hebrew text is binding
Water Authority and Mekorot
Desalination output by plant and days of outage; the price of water for farmers in the south; the share of desalinated water for the south; milestones of the new plants.
In preparationDraft · Not yet sent · The Hebrew text is binding
Electricity Authority, Noga and the Israel Electric Corporation
Solar curtailment in the south; the connection queue; the timetable for the 400 kV lines and their cost in the tariff.
In preparationDraft · Not yet sent · The Hebrew text is binding
Israel Land Authority
The share of land sold in tenders in the Negev; the scale of discounts and development subsidies.
In preparationDraft · Not yet sent · The Hebrew text is binding
Ministry of Defence
How many families of career soldiers are moving to the Negev.
In preparationDraft · Not yet sent · The Hebrew text is binding
What a family would feel
Provided moves 1–2 are adopted. Without a new government the brackets stay frozen, and benefits due by law are paid first.
What a family would feel: when, what and how much
When
What
How much
1.11.2026
Petrol rises by about ₪1 a litre as the subsidy ends; the plan has no targeted compensation.
Fact (Jerusalem Post, 27.10)
1.1.2027
Bracket indexation — if the law passes; there is no guarantee. People below the tax threshold gain nothing from it; benefits are indexed by law.
Information request
2027
VAT is not raised: about ₪805 per person not collected. New taxes — about ₪1.6bn (cars with the “green tax” benefit, streaming), about ₪150 per person.
Estimate
2027
Mortgages: a new borrower saves up to about ₪800 in the first year if the yield returns to its 26.10 level and passes fully into the rate; on an existing fixed-rate mortgage — 0.
Estimate
2027–2031
Civilian spending per person hardly grows.
About ₪27bn in 2031 (estimate)
2028
The gas share: about ₪460–570 per child. For a child born in 2028 — about ₪28,000–42,000 at 21, plus about ₪18,000 from the state’s existing deposit in “Savings for Every Child”. A child aged 8 in 2028 — about ₪16,000–22,000; aged 13 — about ₪7,000–9,000; older children — almost nothing.
Estimate
From 2029
Possible investment-floor taxes (gas — through electricity and water prices; a congestion charge). According to the OECD, the net result comes after 15 years and is smaller at first.
Up to about ₪10.4bn, about ₪950 per resident (estimate)
Even without the plan
The Western Galilee 1 desalination plant, 1.5 GW of storage, the IDF campus in Beersheba.
Great wealth — not in 100 days and not in 10 years. According to the OECD, the full reform package adds at most about 5.5% to GDP per capita over 10 years (about 0.54% a year); the plan takes the competition component (2.2%) and part of the rest. That is the size of the economy, not a family’s income.
Tax cuts in 2027, or no new taxes after 2028; guaranteed bracket indexation.
Spending per pupil, patient or pensioner growing above the floor; debt falling before 2029; cheap housing.
That the path holds if defence spending exceeds ₪187bn in nominal terms: every additional ₪10bn adds about 0.35 percentage points in 2031 (estimate).
New fields in the desert before 2032; 26 GW without a grid; a railway to Eilat; saving the Dead Sea.
Compensation for farmers for the 2026 outages; a date for evacuees to return; new diplomatic agreements.
A resolution of the conscription question, or anyone’s consent to the plan. The plan does not propose raising the retirement age to 70.
Main risks
No government is formed — a continuing budget all year.
The continuing-budget base may exclude the 2026 supplement (an interpretation; a question for the Knesset Legal Adviser), in which case it cuts defence too.
Defence: ₪200bn in 2027 would mean a deficit of about 5.15% of GDP, if the 4.6% forecast assumes ₪187bn (not confirmed). Growth with inflation adds about 0.5 percentage points by 2031. A ₪400bn force-build-up plan over 13 years has not been approved; the security zones cost more than ₪2bn a week. If US assistance does not continue after fiscal year 2028 — up to 0.4% of GDP a year (estimate).
A regional security escalation could disrupt the market targets and gas revenue; that is why the success measures exclude weeks of escalation, and the Anchor has an emergency clause.
If the general government deficit runs 2.0 points above the path without tightening, debt reaches 78% of GDP in 2031.
70 votes for the Anchor and 50 for private bills are not guaranteed.
A Basic Law chapter could be reviewed in court under the tests of High Court case 5969/20.
Measures by foreign states could hit the banking channel at any time.
A thin account: about ₪2.4–2.8bn short in 2027; 0.1–0.5 percentage points open in 2031; recording the shares as transfers — up to 0.3 points.
The garden: plant delays, the southern grid, the 2029 funding cliff, demand for land.
Gas: growth in exports from the Leviathan expansion depends on one buyer; during the fighting the field was shut for 32 days.
Data: government websites are partly closed to automated access; some figures come from press reports.
Publishes drafts with a source for every number; anything calculated is marked “estimate”.
Prepares letters to office-holders — by title, not by name; each goes out only after a human decision.
Prepares a data sheet identical for all 11 factions: the same text, the same numbers.
Will publish the factions’ answers, if they come, verbatim and all together.
Keeps a public correction log.
Does not
Support any bloc, party or person.
Speak for any organization, institution or the state.
Present any organization or person as a partner, supporter or participant without their consent.
Send anything or publish answers without a human decision.
Take part in coalition negotiations.
Present the data sheet as an official document.
What changed against version 1
A public correction log. Version 1 is this page as of the morning of 30.10.2026 and the draft plan it was based on.
Correction log: topic, version 1, version 2
Topic
Version 1
Version 2
The January 1 Law
In the draft plan: the law also covers benefits (already corrected on the page). On the page: a cost of ₪2.5–3bn (rough estimate).
Tax brackets, credit points and National Insurance contribution brackets — not benefits, which are already indexed by law. The cost is an information request to the Ministry of Finance; the rough estimate is withdrawn until an answer arrives.
The budget deadline
The legal deadline — “as a rule, 145 days” from the government’s constitution.
31.3.2027 is a target only. The legal deadline is the later of 1.4.2027 and the day after 145 days from the government’s swearing-in, without holidays; with a swearing-in on 23.12 — around the end of May 2027 (estimate).
The debt path
About 69% in 2031, assuming the general government deficit equals the central government deficit.
Two scenarios: 68.9% (gap 0) or 73.0% (gap 0.9) in 2031; 60% around 2037 or 2049. A path that stops at 2.5% never reaches 60%.
The child’s share
About 3.1 million children; ₪500–600 per child a year; ₪47,000–65,000 at 21.
About 3.3–3.4 million children; about ₪460–570 in 2028; about ₪28,000–42,000 at 21 for a child born in 2028. A conservative model; Leviathan does not yet pay the levy.
US assistance
In the draft plan: “a large cut has been agreed”.
Not agreed: the current memorandum ($3.8bn a year) runs through fiscal year 2028, and no new memorandum has been signed.
Gas buyers
In the draft plan: “a single buyer”.
Leviathan sells to Egypt, Jordan and Israel (6.2, 2.9 and 1.8 billion m³ in 2025); only the growth in exports from the expansion depends on one buyer.
Negev funding
In the draft plan: “at least ₪1.3bn a year, no cliff”.
Commitments excluding Tkuma fall to ₪0.28bn in 2029; Tkuma’s mandate ends in 2028, and without a decision on a successor body funding stops in 2029.
The data sheet
Yield 4.147% (28.10); reserves $238.7bn (30.6).
Yield 4.139% (29.10) and about 4.138% (30.10, morning); reserves about $237.0bn (30.9); turnout 77.9%; added CDS, interest rate, labour market, water, energy, gas and US assistance.
Questions to factions
Four questions.
Five questions: a budget within 21 days, pricing agreements before the confidence vote, path and VAT by open vote, the same requirements for any supplementary budget, programmes not below 2025.
Mortgages
A saving of about ₪900 a year (from the 28.10 base).
Up to about ₪800 in the first year for a new borrower, from the 30.10 base, with full pass-through; on an existing fixed-rate mortgage — 0.
How checks are described
Wording that called the checks “independent”.
“Checked by AI agents; every number links to a source — check for yourself”.
The garden
Not included.
Added: water, energy, land and people in the south, stages and a scoreboard of 10 indicators with proposed publishers.
Corrections after a further check: “70 votes across the blocs”, worded so that no bloc is left out; the publishers in the garden scoreboard and who delivers are a 314 proposal (“proposed publisher”); replacement sources for the facts on the election and on Leviathan; the Bank of Israel debt forecast in the note under the debt table; a fuller disclaimer.
The plan and this page were prepared by 314’s AI agents (Claude): research, fact-checking, strategy, judging, a red team, editing, a cross-check on 30.10 and corrections based on it. The red team made 98 comments (3 critical, 57 serious, 38 minor), and the 30.10 cross-check found 45 more (1 critical, 10 serious, 34 minor). The editor addressed them, but the red team did not run a second review round. No human economist or lawyer has reviewed the plan.
Limits: the websites of government ministries, the Bank of Israel, the Central Bureau of Statistics, the Knesset and the OECD are partly closed to automated access, so some figures were taken from press reports (Globes, Calcalist, Ynet, The Jerusalem Post, The Times of Israel); the texts of laws were read on he.wikisource. Not checked: some legal caveats (they are framed as questions for the Knesset Legal Adviser), 2027 defence spending, the size of coalition money, the number of eligible children, southern grid data and the state of Negev commitments after November 2025. Every number has a source — check for yourself. Anything calculated rather than taken from a source is marked “estimate”.
Disclaimer
Educational content only — analysis of public data for illustration and discussion. Non-partisan: the same text for all 11 factions, without exception. Not a position of the state, of any party or of any organization, and not a call to vote for or support anyone. No organization and no person has endorsed or joined the plan. Any role this page assigns to a body, institution or office-holder — publisher, implementer, overseer or addressee — is a 314 proposal only, not their position, consent or commitment. The letters and information requests are drafts not yet sent, addressed to office-holders by position. The proposals are for discussion only; this is not a party platform or a call to act. The data sheet is a 314 draft, not a document of the Bank of Israel or of any ministry. Not legal, financial or tax advice. Estimates are hypotheses to be tested. No claims about private individuals or companies. The Hebrew text is binding; the English and Russian are translations.